House Republican Leaders Unveil 7-week Stopgap Funding Bill

We wanted to share the latest developments since our update 10 days ago. With the Congress in recess next week in observance of Rosh Hashanah, time is very short to enact legislation continuing government funding, and there are growing worries of a government shutdown. On Tuesday, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) released a continuing resolution (CR) funding discretionary programs at current levels through November 20. The bill is relatively “clean” with the exception of additional security funding for government leaders, but it does not include an extension of the expiring ACA health insurance subsidies that has emerged as the key demand from Democrats in exchange for their cooperation in passing a CR. In a further complication, several Republican members of the House have indicated they will not support the Speaker’s CR because it does not cut funding.

Working toward a Friday House vote, Speaker Johnson is attempting to shore up Republican votes and, with the current House margin of two votes, he will need nearly unanimous support from his caucus to pass the bill. That said, he has the support of President Trump and passage in the House seems more likely than not. It is, however, very unclear what would happen in the Senate in the wake of House passage. With 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster, seven Democrats would need to join all Republicans to advance the bill. Clearly, House Republican and the Administration are betting Senate Democrats will set aside their demands on the ACA and help pass the CR to keep the government open. At this point, Senate Democrats appear mostly to be sticking together and pushing for bipartisan negotiations on a CR package that would include the ACA subsidy extension.

Senate rules are complicated, but a procedural vote on the CR could come as soon as this weekend (to preserve the week-long recess for the holiday). If Senate Democrats stay united and vote together to filibuster the House CR, that will leave only one or two legislative workdays to negotiate an agreement before October 1, raising the possibility of a shutdown.

Beyond these process issues, we did also want to note that existing policy riders, such as the current statutory language that prevents the administration from deviating from the F&A negotiated rate, would remain in effect in the CR currently being considered.